RNY Market Watch: June Coffee Export and Price Report

Market Watch

Andrew Blyth

Coffee Trading, Operations Manager

Tom McLaughlin

Risk & Food Safety Manager, Risk Management

Welcome to our June edition of RNY Market Watch! Andrew Blyth & Tom McLaughlin are here to provide you with the latest insight into coffee export and price as of June 2023.

Coffee Export & Price on the Decline

Coffee prices the week of June 18th, as measured by the ICE KCU’23 futures contract, traded to a 5 month low at $1.6405/lb. That’s approximately a 28 cent decline from the recent high of $1.9175 on June 9th.

Cecafé, the Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil, reported that Brazil’s May coffee exports were only 2,448,275 bags, down 20% from last year. In fact, data on the past few monthly coffee exports from Brazil have been the lowest in almost 5 years. Although current prices have been relatively high compared to historical prices, one would think they would be even higher given the low export numbers. Prices should also be higher due to robusta coffee prices trading at 15 year highs, as well as production issues in Indonesia and Colombia this past year.

Brazil’s Crop Impact on Coffee Export & Price

The 2023/24 Brazil coffee harvest is in full swing, and beneficial weather has helped farmers with the harvest. Brazil’s largest exporter, Cooxupe, reported that the current harvest is almost 22% complete, compared with 14% at this time last year. The USDA recently reported its estimate for the current Brazil crop, differing from CONAB, the Brazilian government forecasting agency. USDA’s prediction of 66.4 million bags (combined 44.7 arabica and 21.7 conilon) is remarkably higher than CONAB’s of 54.7 million. As Brazil produces roughly 1/3 of the total global coffee output each year, the size of the Brazil crop will have a significant impact on coffee prices. We will have to wait and see just how beneficial Brazil’s weather has truly been.

A Bloomberg article this week cited unnamed sources, claiming that a few large, multi-national coffee roasters have been holding back on purchasing coffee from Brazil. The article says that they are waiting for prices to drop in expectation that this year’s crop and the next in 2024/25 could be very large.

So, what does this mean to you?

It means it’s a perfect time to BUY coffee! I can’t think of a time in the last 6+ months when the timing was better. Coffee warehouses in the USA (especially Royal NY’s) are full of fresh arrivals from America, Ethiopia and more. New coffee is coming in daily from Guatemala, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras among others, both in micro and full lots.

Not only are coffees fresh and cupping great, but many are getting cheaper with the decline in the “C” market. This is the time to calibrate with your trader, discuss the quantities and profiles you want and need to cover inventory thru 2023 and beyond. Contact us today, our projection tools are queued up and our cupping table is full. We can walk you through offerings from your favorite countries to find the coffees that are right for you.