RNY Market Watch: Awaiting the Brazil Coffee Harvest

Market Watch

Tom McLaughlin

Risk & Food Safety Manager, Risk Management

Andrew Blyth

Coffee Trading, Operations Manager

Hello RNY Friends! Our trusted coffee traders are back with the latest insights into the “C” Market and how the upcoming Brazil coffee harvest is expected to affect prices. As April wraps up, it has proven to be another choppy month with coffee “C” prices bouncing between $2.1500- $2.3500

Impact of the Brazil Coffee Harvest

The coffee industry anxiously awaits the upcoming Brazil harvest (May-July) for clues as to how big the crop will be and where prices will be going. Recent coffee exports have been better than expected, which has helped keep the market from making new highs and allowed warehouse stock numbers to creep a little higher. The Green Coffee Association reported US warehouse coffee stocks were up 54,950 bags for the month of March, ending at 5,820,298 bags. This was 2.49% more than the 5,679,192 bags in store one year earlier. ICE Certified coffee warehouses have added about 18,000 bags so far in April.

March coffee exports from Brazil were 3.622 million bags, which was slightly lower year over year but much higher than the 5 year average for March. This may be due in part to shipping logistics improving. However, it also could be due to exporters taking advantage of the strong Brazilian Real and high “C” prices to sell remaining inventory left over from last summer’s 2021/22 crop.
Other notable export numbers were Vietnam’s Jan-March coffee exports jumped +19.4% y/y to 541,000 MT and Guatemala March coffee exports were up 7.6% y/y to 425,000 bags.

What’s to come?

While we continue to keep a close eye on the “C” market and Brazilian harvest, new crop coffees from Central America are rolling in!! Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador have begun to arrive. There are also many more shipments in the queue. Quality has been great and some relief in the market could signal the perfect time to reserve your share of the crop. Contact your trader today to review your past usage, forward needs and cupping table favorites. We’ll also let you know which origins will be next!